How soon could U.S jobless rate reach 6.5%?

The Federal Reserve says it will keep interest rates near zero until unemployment reaches 6.5%, but some economists say the central bank may have to consider changing its policy sooner than it thinks.

The Fed's economic forecast suggests that the U.S. jobless rate won't hit its new target until mid-2015, which most economists think is close to the mark.

That's 30 months out. The unemployment rate now is 7.7%, so the Fed's target rate is 1.2 percentage points away. That's how much the rate has fallen in 14 months, from September 2011, when it was 9%.

If the unemployment rate takes 30 months to reach 6.5%, that would be more than twice as long as it's taken for the rate to fall by the same amount, points out Dean Maki, U.S. economist at Barclays.

If the Fed's economic forecast proves right, it will be because many of the 4 million-plus people who have left the labor force since 2007 begin looking for work again, says Maki.

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